You're about to read a realistic price prediction for Supra, which in my view is heading toward zero for the reasons I'm going to walk through here. I am extremely skeptical of almost every altcoin and crypto, and I say that because I love you and because I've been ripped off and watched so many projects over the last 11 years fail to deliver and waste people's time. Supra is a pretty new project, and I personally hate investing in anything new. Yes, the bull market pump or the freshness of a launch often produces that first pump, but you can't really tell whether something is good until it has been out for a while and has been through a bear market.
The market cap and token unlock problem
At this point, Supra has roughly a $100 million market cap, but its fully diluted market cap sits at around $1.5 billion. To me, that gap is very problematic because of the sheer number of token unlocks still to come. When I look at the rest of the data I'll share here, I'm reminded that token unlocks have destroyed the price of what I believe is the best project in crypto, Internet Computer Protocol. Token unlocks have just kept that price going down and down. With Supra, there's a ton of token unlocks left, which is really bad for the price.
If you scroll down on the page and read what this actually is, it describes itself as a super powerful layer one blockchain ecosystem. But in my view it's not as powerful as Internet Computer Protocol, which has been out for years, has real projects building on it, and has a ton of use cases. So realistically, how powerful is this? To me it's not relevant and not that powerful. If you go to the stats right now, according to them they have a few hundred thousand active accounts and a hundred and some million in TVL. Those are numbers that can be easily faked. What's supposedly harder to fake is the actual on-chain activity, but honestly that can be faked too. Transactions can be faked, and in my experience these cryptos are generally faking in every way they can.
But here's what stands out with Supra: most of the transactions aren't even real. In most blocks there isn't a real transaction at all. Whoever gets the block produces the one transaction, so most of the blocks are empty right now. That's pretty bad. It makes sense for something new, but I absolutely would not want to invest in something where most of the blocks are empty.
Why I compare everything to Internet Computer
This is exactly why you need to be able to compare. To me, you compare everything to the Internet Computer and the picture gets a lot clearer. Internet Computer is doing thousands of transactions a second, 68 blocks a second, and it's serving websites. Nothing else can do that. That's a powerful layer one. Internet Computer can serve websites and it can run my entire community, like my VIP chat and OpenChat. ICP is a genuinely powerful layer one. When you compare that to Supra, Supra looks dead and useless by comparison, and its fully diluted market cap is only a little bigger.
I'm sharing this because, yes, some of these coins I say will go to zero may hype up in the short term. Almost nobody wants to go out there dumping on a whole bunch of coins, because you get paid by hyping things up and saying they'll do a 100x. You don't generally get paid for saying something is going to dump and go to zero. There are plenty of super hype videos out there, so there needs to be a going-to-zero take too, because I'm not impressed with this. I'm difficult to impress, and I'm not impressed.
What I think of the team
The best thing I do like about Supra is that they have an actual team page listed. That's better than Solana. Last I checked, Solana's foundation website had four names listed, so nobody's really transparent on that project, and why would they be? On Supra, if you go to supra.com and click through About to the Team, you do at least have the team there. You've got the number one, the chief research officer, who does have experience with cryptography, which you'd be amazed how many of these cryptos have almost nobody with cryptography experience. Then there's the VP of DeFi research, then another engineer, which is good, and a security officer, which is good. After that you start getting into a lot more business people, although there are more cryptographers and engineers here than I usually see, so that is a good sign.
Still, the depth of the team compared to the market cap and compared to ICP is very small. You quickly run out of people on the page, and you start wondering how many people are actually working on the protocol and what value they can really deliver. The team runs out of depth pretty quickly. You've got 15 or 20 people, which is better than a lot of projects. But when you look at the DFINITY website and see what that tech has been doing and how long it's been around, this team doesn't look that good by comparison. When you compare this team to most coins, though, it certainly looks better. They also have some researchers listed.
The ecosystem is mostly "coming soon"
Here's one of the key problems I see, and this differs greatly from ICP. If you look at the layer one ecosystem, you'll notice how little is actually happening. They've got a big list of stuff, which on the surface looks fine, and this is exactly why you always need to go into depth. You need to really research things, and ideally you should be using something every day, the blockchain itself, not trading a token. You should be using something every day before you invest in it. I don't see much you can actually use on Supra, and that's bad.
When you start at the top of the ecosystem directory, the first app is in development. The second has a testnet live. The next is coming soon. The one after that is coming soon. You do have one, a bulk sender, and I can imagine why they got that online immediately, because it would let you spam active addresses. A bulk sender makes it very easy to artificially inflate the active addresses and the transactions. So yes, I'm skeptical, because in my experience almost all of you get ripped off investing in crypto and waste your time. When you look at the top of their ecosystem directory you see testnet, in development, coming soon, testnet, coming soon. I realize this is new, but there's almost nothing really built with it. It's a whole bunch of coming soon. And when they say something is integrated, what they mean is they've integrated the token with some existing project. With all these coming soon entries, there's no way I'd invest in this right now, because it's questionable whether any of this will materialize or provide any real value or utility for the token. This is really bad.
Again, compare that to Internet Computer. You go to internetcomputer.org and look at the dapps and the ICP ecosystem. Decide AI has verified tens of thousands of users. There's BitFed, and the EVM that even Coin Bureau praised in one of the only positive things they've said, EVM with Bitcoin on ICP. There's ICP Swap. You've got all kinds of coins, projects funded on chain, Gold DAO live with a gold coin, NFID, a wallet that just went live, another exchange. You can actually go use and look at so many apps that are live right now. I realize it's been out for years. On Tracks I put my music up consistently. But this is what you could also invest in for only a little bit more market cap, and that's another big problem I see with Supra.
Sloppy documentation gives it away
Go into the documentation, because often the way you find shallowness in a project is through sloppiness in the details. If you go to the developer documentation and start scrolling down, trying to see how things work, you'll find a lot of these links are broken. I click on one, 404. I look for a deeper dive, 404. I go around the page, 404. This is sloppy. You go to look up how NFTs work and it's sloppy, with a broken 404 page on basic documentation. That's not good. You can often tell that a project doesn't have hardly anything on chain when you go to look at how NFTs work, and here I went to look at the NFT documentation and got 404s. I couldn't read about hardly anything in there.
So this is absolutely not a project I would invest in. I think it's going to zero as a realistic price prediction, and I see it as fundamentally worthless. To me, this is a project someone started by taking a bunch of their own money, trying to 10x or 100x it by making their own coin, getting a relatively small team together, building their own layer one, and trying to get people to buy it. The supply metrics here are absolutely horrible, with the circulating supply compared to the total supply and the fully diluted market cap. There's absolutely no way I would invest in this. If you want more of my take on coins like this, you can find it in my Money playlist, where I dig into the projects I'd buy and the ones I'd avoid.