Here is a realistic price prediction for Kaspa that is not pushed by bots or built on blatant lies. In my opinion, it is going to zero. This project is an absolute dumpster fire. I have said it over and over again: I see nothing of value here. And I have got some new material to add to my previous videos on Kaspa.
The number one issue with Kaspa, as I see it, is that it gets blatantly pushed with bots, both on YouTube and on X. You see creators who do not have any kind of quality message hyping up useless, ridiculous narratives and pulling in huge numbers of viewers who do not even engage that much. Bots are clearly pushing the content, and from what I have experienced, Kaspa supporters have actually used their bots against my videos in the past to try to keep you from finding out what a pile of crap I believe this is. I have been saying this all along, even when it was at two cents. There are just no fundamentals for Kaspa, in my view. And now that it has started the downtrend, the chart is not in its favor either.
This is a $2 billion market cap project. For that, I expect some serious innovation, because for twice this market cap I could get what I consider the best technology in crypto, which is Internet Computer Protocol. When you compare Kaspa to that, the only reason I can think of to hold Kaspa is that you got easily tricked by bots into the project.
Proof of work is a dead narrative
Let us look at some of the critical issues. First, proof of work is just a narrative at this point. In my opinion it is worthless, it is old, it is decades old. In crypto it started with Bitcoin. I believe proof of work fails because the masses have no real chance of getting involved. Proof of work is set up to benefit the elite, the tiny portion of people who can buy the computers and set up the mining. So this is clearly an insider game. The regular person has no chance of doing anything besides buying Kaspa and hoping the price goes up on an exchange, which to me is worthless. That is not adding any value to humanity.
And is there any transparency about the team and who is actually inventing this? Now there is, after I was brutally critical of having almost nobody on the page. If you go to the Kaspa site now, the founder at least has his picture up, and they have done a good job of putting six core developers up there. But when you compare that to ICP, which has double the market cap and hundreds of people, including some of the biggest talent in crypto, you have got this one guy and a relatively small team of six core developers for a $2 billion project. It does not look good at all, especially when they are taking donations on their website. Nothing says "we do not even make enough money from this and have such a bad business system that, outside of mining, we need donations" quite like that. I have been critical of that the entire time, and I will guarantee you this does not work out, because you need a real business system.
ICP, through DFINITY, has an incredible business system, and proof of stake is great for a sustainable business system. Proof of work, by contrast, requires the Kaspa team to run all these machines to do proof of work mining, which I find insanely wasteful. And the Kaspa block times are not impressive enough to compete with something like Internet Computer.
A ghost chain with no smart contracts
The Kaspa blockchain cannot even do smart contracts. This is 2025, not 2014. The Kaspa chain is a ghost chain. Look at it for yourself: there is almost nothing happening from block to block. It is the same few miners mining most of the blocks, and most of the blocks have one single transaction, which is the miner getting paid to mine. To me this is absolutely a project with no substance, a ghost chain, a zombie chain. There is no reason to hold this.
The Kaspa narrative is that somehow proof of work mining is better than proof of stake. I will give them this: I am impressed that somebody behind Kaspa made an archive site dedicated to debunking myths and revealing facts. So let us go straight in. Almost everything they try to debunk is, to me, actually true, or at least there is some truth to it.
They say Kaspa was unfairly launched and secretly controlled by DAG Labs. In my view it absolutely was unfairly launched, because if you did not know about proof of work mining on Kaspa, you got nothing. All the insiders were doing the proof of work mining and got all the early tokens, super easy, with no competition. To me the fair launch narratives are absolute garbage.
Then they take on "proof of stake greater than proof of work." Absolutely it is, in my opinion. Look at most of the top coins today; they are proof of stake chains, or built on proof of stake chains. Plain and simple, and you can look it up yourself. Aside from Bitcoin, you have Ethereum and Solana. Most of the top cryptos are either proof of stake chains or live on proof of stake. Proof of work, I believe, is a dead, wasteful, useless narrative. Proof of stake gives you a very clear reason to hold the coin; proof of work does not. With proof of work you sit there and hope the price goes up. With proof of stake, you stake it, like on Internet Computer. On the Network Nervous System you hold the coin, you stake it, and then you can vote on changes. With Kaspa you sit there and wait and hope the development team does something. You get nothing for holding the coin.
Centralization, scalability, and speed
Here is more proof: 0.28% of Bitcoin addresses own 80% of the supply after 15 years. In my opinion proof of work sucks and excludes the masses from being able to participate in governance.
Kaspa's scalability is absolutely limited by depending on a layer two. Ethereum's scalability has suffered because it is dependent on layer twos. Those layer twos have extracted all kinds of value off of Ethereum and, in my view, made the entire protocol much more worthless, with a ton of value slipping onto other chains. Kaspa cannot even do smart contract transactions on chain. This is horrible, and it is absolutely unscalable, because you can hardly build anything directly on Kaspa. You have to use stuff off of Kaspa. No developer who has heard of Internet Computer, and more and more of them have, would build on Kaspa instead of Internet Computer Protocol, because with Kaspa you have to set up everything else first and then try to make it work. And nobody is going to build on Kaspa when they could just go to Solana and get so much more liquidity and a much bigger ecosystem.
So when you look at this, I just do not care about this one. I have said proof of work is definitely unsustainable. You have people like Elon Musk who would not support Bitcoin because proof of work mining is insanely wasteful in computing power and energy. Proof of stake not only eliminates the need for that, it creates a reason to hold the token. Proof of work mining is, in my opinion, way too expensive for average users. It does harm the environment, and it absolutely leads to centralization. One single Bitcoin miner controls a third of all Bitcoin mining hash rate. From Bitcoin we can see that proof of work is unsustainable, centralized, and inaccessible, and Kaspa is sitting here saying the opposite.
Kaspa's speed is not fast enough to keep up with Internet Computer either. Ten second finality is nothing compared to one second finality on ICP. It lacks utility. Absolutely it does, and as proof of that, just look at the transactions. Go to ICP and see how many transactions it is doing for twice as big a market cap. Kaspa is just another one of these proof of work layer ones. It is basically a copy. It offers nothing truly new or groundbreaking. It is like they watched my videos and then tried to make stuff up. It is not a major leap forward in blockchain technology, and I think that claim is ridiculous. Now, if you said this about Internet Computer Protocol, that would be true. Nothing else in crypto outside of ICP, in my opinion, can make that comment. Quantum secure? I am not too worried about that.
My realistic price prediction
Look at the people who are talking positively about Kaspa. When I watch them, I can tell they know almost nothing about crypto, and I believe they care nothing about you as an investor. To me, Kaspa is an absolute junk project that will go to zero. That is my realistic price prediction. I have come to believe the only reason people are buying Kaspa is because they are easily tricked by narratives. If you want to dig deeper into how I think about these projects, I have put together my Money playlist.
Here is the one honest test I would apply. Do you use the Kaspa blockchain every single day? If you do, then maybe it makes sense for you to hold it. But if you do not use the Kaspa blockchain every day yourself, in my opinion there is no point in holding it.