The Worst Bear Case for ICP Crypto, and Why I Still Hold

The Worst Bear Case for ICP Crypto, and Why I Still Hold

You are about to hear my absolute worst case scenario for the Internet Computer Protocol. This is not something I have hardly mentioned before, or even thought about much. But it recently seems to me to be the number one problem, the single area where ICP does not go well. Before I get into it, let me address a few things. Number one, I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. I have over 7,000 ICP, which is tens of thousands of dollars invested across ICP, OpenChat, Decide AI, and my JBBJ meme coin. So obviously I am very interested in the best case scenario. But I think it is delusional to not be aware of the worst case scenarios. And to me, this particular worst case scenario is the number one reason that, at 7,000 ICP, I still am accumulating in my neuron every day. I am still accumulating maturity constantly. But right now I am not planning to buy any more ICP, even though it looks like such a great buying opportunity, and the reason is this worst case scenario.

Let's start with healthcare

I want to start with healthcare and then bring it back to crypto, because sometimes things do not make sense as clearly until you see the same pattern play out in another field. Right now, the field of healthcare, health insurance, doctors, medication, the information around health, almost everything in healthcare, to me, is such a dumpster fire that it is hard to even look at.

Right now I am at the healthiest I have ever been in my entire life. I do not go to the doctor and I do not take any medication. I am not against going to the doctor in all scenarios, but what I see is that the entire healthcare system is set up to profit off of sick people. In my opinion, the whole healthcare system is built that way, and I am obviously not a doctor either. If you are a doctor, unfortunately you have to follow the rules, and some of those rules do not appear to be ethical, in my opinion. The whole healthcare system seems set up to keep people sick. What I have noticed is that the people who consistently go to the doctor are also the ones who keep getting more and more pills and keep getting sicker. Whereas the ones like me, I do not go to the doctor, I do not ask for medical advice when I have a health issue, and I handle it myself.

For example, I had a hemorrhoid pop up for the first time in my life a month ago. I looked in Louise Hay's book and I took ownership that I had manifested it, because there was literally a person who was being a pain in my rear end at the time. I asked my massage therapist and my wife, I read that book, and it was gone a month later, with absolutely no medical intervention needed. That is how I operate. I look at what I am manifesting in my body and I get it to go away. I eat a whole plant-based diet. What I have found in my own experience is that I know how to be healthy and it is cheap, and it goes against almost everything the healthcare system seems to be set up for. The way I live, taking total ownership over my body, needing almost no medical intervention, not following any of the advice I have ever been given, runs against the grain of the whole system. I once found a lump on one of my testicles. You would think I would go to the doctor, right? No. I figured it would go away, and it did. I am so glad I handled it the way I did. I do not know what you should do, but that is just what I did and that is the truth.

So what I see is a healthcare system stacked heavily toward profiting off of sick people, and the advice that I keep running into consistently appears to me to be blatantly wrong and counterproductive.

Now apply that to crypto

Now let's apply that to crypto. For a long time I have been saying the best case for ICP is that the tech matters and that the tech could change the world. But what if the tech does not matter? Some people say it is just all hype and speculation. And what if that is the ideal scenario for the people making money? What if they do not want real tech?

Go back to healthcare for a moment. If you have knowledge about how to keep your body healthy, through things like the book Mind Over Medicine, written by a doctor, or How Not To Die, also written by a doctor, you have fantastic information for keeping your body healthy. You can buy those books for twenty bucks, or even cheaper at a used bookstore. The information in there can prevent disease and prevent massive healthcare expenses. If even a small amount of the population had my level of knowledge, multiply that by five or ten, the healthcare system gets annihilated. The destruction to all of those profits and all of that money would be utter annihilation.

You see the same issue with ICP. If ICP gets even a little more popular than it is today, that is utter annihilation for the messy, insecure tech and systems we have now, both in crypto and on the web in general. Insiders are very well positioned to profit off of that messiness. I wonder how many of the hacks you see across all areas are actually insiders intentionally stealing money from their own company.

I know from my time as a police officer that shoplifting was a very small issue compared to employee theft. I remember bringing a guy into the office one day to speak with a detective. This guy had stolen tens of thousands of dollars of textbooks, more than probably all the shoplifters combined, and he did it while getting paid to do so at the bookstore. He was so blatant and obvious about it that we brought him in. If he had been a little more discreet, he never would have gotten caught. Employee theft is a massive problem.

When you look at the tech industry and crypto today, and you compare it to healthcare, you have to ask: what if tech, the internet, and crypto have the same basic people and the same energy running them that healthcare does? Healthcare is such a critically important industry all over the world, and ideally it should be helping all of us be healthy and have vital, strong bodies. If that same level of thought and energy is running crypto, that is the worst case scenario for ICP. Not only does the tech not matter, the tech is threatening and needs to be suppressed.

The treatment ICP appears to be getting

So far, the treatment I see ICP getting is very similar to the treatment I see certain things get in healthcare, things I will not even mention specifically because the system is so oppressive. There are certain health conditions being researched, tons of money being dumped into them, and there are known free cures out there that you cannot even talk about. That is how oppressive I believe the healthcare system is. And if the tech system is that oppressive, which unfortunately I would have to calculate at a high probability that it is, then not only does the tech not matter, but every effort will be made to suppress ICP, every effort from every angle.

If I did an interview with Dominic Williams, the one question I would want to ask him is this: is ICP going to get the same treatment that holistic health gets in healthcare? Because yes, ICP solves massive problems. It also eliminates massive opportunities for insiders to steal from their own company by hacking. It eliminates opportunities for people who are already making money off of these insecure web systems. It puts their livelihoods at risk. It puts their net worth at risk.

So to me, this is the absolute worst case scenario for ICP: that the entire system is rigged to steal from you, and that the entire tech system is rigged to keep you suppressed and under control. Unfortunately, the more I think about this, and the more I watch how ICP is treated, the higher I estimate the probability of this scenario.

We still have a say

At the same time, you and I do have a say. People like Louise Hay helped me a lot to learn that I could heal my body. Doctors who wrote books like Mind Over Medicine and How Not To Die helped me get information about my health that prevented the need to go to the doctor and helped me become the healthiest I have ever been in my life. We do have a choice. What you and I do when it comes to ICP matters, but marketing matters too. We need to get the word out there about ICP, and it cannot just be up to you and me. DFINITY has to take the right actions with marketing to get through this insanely oppressive system, where not only is the better tech not welcomed, but there is pressure to keep the best tech secret so that the people in charge can keep using the technology they already profit from. If you want to dig deeper into all of this, you can find much more in my ICP Crypto playlist.

So for me personally, this is the number one reason I do not want to buy more ICP at this point: I have already got enough. If the tech does matter, which I sure hope it does, I am positioned. And if the tech does not matter, I have already put so much into this that I think I have got enough in here already.

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